Under the first Trump Administration, the U.S. prompted a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a 23-year-old trade pact between the U.S., Mexico and Canada. After an intense series of trilateral negotiations over a 13-month period, the newly minted U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was signed on November 30, 2018, and was officially entered into force on July 1, 2020.

One unique element of the USMCA was the inclusion of an unprecedented provision requiring all three parties to conduct a review six years after its entry into force, setting the review for July 2026. According to the provision, which was prompted by the U.S., if the three countries do not agree to extend USMCA in the 2026 review, the agreement will terminate in 2036. Further, if any party does not agree to extend USMCA, the parties will conduct annual joint reviews until all parties agree to extend the agreement for another 16- year period (after which the parties will return to a six-year joint review cycle) or USMCA terminates.

The joint review process, as understood by trade policy practitioners, is intended to ensure continued relevance and functionality of the agreement. The belief was that the review may result in revised text for some provisions, not a full-on renegotiation of an agreement. But it’s recognized that this is ultimately dependent upon the leadership of the three parties of the time of the review.

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